[뉴욕타임즈 영어 공부] Learning Network - Math - Dangerous Numbers? (2020. 2. 27.)

※ 궁금한 표현이 있는 경우 댓글로 문의를 남겨 주시기 바랍니다.

출처: 뉴욕타임즈 Learning Network

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/learning/dangerous-numbers-teaching-about-data-and-statistics-using-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Dangerous Numbers? Teaching About Data and Statistics Using the Coronavirus Outbreak

 

 

Dangerous Numbers? Teaching About Data and Statistics Using the Coronavirus Outbreak

In this guest lesson, the math teacher Patrick Honner helps students practice looking critically at data in the news.

 

Image: Credit...Daniel Zender

 

By Patrick Honner

Feb. 27, 2020 

 

Find all our Lessons of the Day here.

Lesson of the Day

 

 

Lesson Overview

 

Featured Article: “We’re Reading the Coronavirus Numbers Wrong” by John Allen Paulos

Opinion | We’re Reading the Coronavirus Numbers Wrong

 

In his recent New York Times Opinion piece, John Allen Paulos, a professor of mathematics, cautions about the way in which we interpret and report disease-related data. In this lesson, you will see what numbers and statistics can tell us about disease outbreaks and how that data can be misinterpreted. Then you will analyze other examples of data reporting in the news and determine how accurate or effective it is.

 

 

Warm Up 

 

Respond to the following questions in writing, or engage in a class discussion: 

 - engage in: (특히 다른 사람과의 경쟁이나 대화를 포함하는) 특정 활동에 참여하다

 

• What have you heard about the coronavirus? Do you talk about it at school or with friends or family?
• How do you see coronavirus discussed in the news or on social media? Have you seen memes or TikTok videos about the coronavirus? What tone do these sources take?
• How concerned are you about the coronavirus? What has influenced how you think and feel about global outbreak?   

 - meme: (서로 다른 이용자들에 의해 종종 변형되는) 인터넷에서 유행하는 유머러스한 이미지, 비디오, 짧은 글

(Feel free to join our related Student Opinion conversation about these topics. Commenting is easy — it only takes seconds to register, and it’s free — but you must be 13 or older to participate.)  

 - feel free: 누군가에게 원할 경우 무엇을 할 수 있다고 말해 주다

 

 

Questions for Writing and Discussion  

 

Read the article, then answer the following questions:  

1. How can you calculate the case fatality rate for a disease? What are the challenges to determining an accurate coronavirus fatality rate?  

 - challenge: 무엇이 참인지/정확한지/적법한지에 대해 의문을 제기하는 행동이나 생각

 - challenge to: There seems to be no significant challenge to the party's free-market ideology.

 - fatality: 질병이나 사고 등이 사람을 죽일 수 있는 수준/정도, 치사(致死)성

2. How do the changing coronavirus numbers in Hubei, China, illustrate how numbers can provide a distorted picture of what is going on?  

3. What role does the media play in our understanding of the coronavirus outbreak? Why does Mr. Paulos say, “Constant on-the-nose reporting, however much it seems to serve transparency, has limitations, too.” What do you think? What are the advantages and disadvantages to the 24-hour news cycle?

 - on the nose: 정확히/완전히 옳은, 정확히

 - however: 무엇이 얼마나 ...해도 아무런 영향/효과가 없는

 - however much/many: 아무리 많이 해도 소용없는

 cf. however good/well/bad/badly/hard: She would still love him however badly he behaved.
 cf. however long something takes: We are determined to solve this problem, however long it takes.

 - serve: 기여하다, ...을 위해 복무(服務)하다

 cf. serve as: Mr. Russell served as president of the Association for fifteen years.

 cf. serve on: Henry served on numerous committees and commissions.

 cf. serve in: I met my wife, Rachel, while serving in the Navy.

4. How does the case fatality rate of Covid-19 compare with that of other diseases, based on what we know now? How might the numbers tell a different story as we gather additional data over the next weeks or months?  

 

5. What are some of Mr. Paulos’s suggested remedies?

 

 

Activity: Dangerous Numbers 

Teachers: The featured Op-Ed essay creates an opportunity to actively engage with how data is presented and reported. In this activity, encourage students to analyze data and see if they can find other examples of “dangerous numbers.”  

 - engage with someone/something: 누군가/무언가를 이해하거나 다루기/처리하기 위해 노력하다

Have students search The Times and other news outlets for articles that focus on data. Students could choose to look further at the latest updates on the coronavirus. Or they can search poll numbers for the Democratic primaries, climate change statistics or unemployment data. With an eye on the numbers, students can identify potential misrepresentations and misinterpretations of data, and maybe spot a “numerical optical illusion” of their own.  

 - with an eye on: 특정한 사물/영역에 집중하다

 - misrepresent: 다른 사람을 속이기 위해 누군가/무언가에 대해 틀리거나 부정확한 설명 또는 묘사를 하다

 - spot: 발견하다, 알아차리다

 - optical illusion: 착시(錯視)

 - of one's own: 혼자서, 홀로

Here are some questions that can help frame their analysis:

 - frame: 틀을 잡다, 만들어 내다

 

Is the data what we think it is? 

 

Numbers may seem fixed and unambiguous, but as Mr. Paulos points out, even a seemingly straightforward data point like “number of deaths” can be vague:  

 

The coronavirus might be blamed for the deaths of vulnerable people, especially seniors, already suffering from other illnesses, such as diabetes and other chronic conditions.  

Real World Example: Unemployment may seem like a clear concept: People either have a job or they don’t. However, what if a person works only a few months out of the year? Or what if they work multiple part-time jobs at once?  

Ask Yourself: Do I really understand the nature of the data? Find out where the data comes from and what it actually represents. Then consider how different interpretations of that data could lead to different conclusions.  

 

Does the data mean what we think it means?  

 

When quantities rise and fall, medical officials and news outlets often create a narrative around why that happened; however, those narratives are not always accurate. For example, when looking at the increase in reported cases of coronavirus, Mr. Paulos explains that it could be because the virus is spreading, but it could also be a result of the revised definition of what it means to be “infected” with the coronavirus.  

Real World Example: When stock prices rise and fall, there is no shortage of explanations for why it happened. However, it is important to ask if the company’s stock price fell because of a C.E.O.’s poor decision, or because the company just had a bad week?  

Ask Yourself: Who benefits from interpreting the numbers in this way? What perspective or bias might they have? For example, is there a reason that one candidate is “surging” when polling at 13 percent, while another is “struggling” with the same numbers? Every story has a narrator, and you want to identify who the narrator is and why he or she is telling the story in a particular way.  

 - surge: 급등하다

 - narrator: 화자, 서술자

 

Is there other data that could help put this in context?  

There is always more data, so look for related reporting to see what else there is to know. For example, local polling data can be compared with national polling data. And industry averages can help put individual business numbers in perspective, while looking at transportation and travel data can help us understand how outbreaks might be spreading.  

 - put something in/into perspective: ...에 대해 (다른 것들과의 관계를 고려하여 객관적으로) 중요성을 판단하다

Ask Yourself: What else is there to know? Where can I find more data on this subject? This question is particularly helpful to ask when you are trying to paint a picture using data.   

 

 

Teachers: If there is time, students can present a summary of their findings, including an analysis of how the data was used and interpreted. They can also share whether they think they found any “dangerous numbers.” Students can also offer suggestions on how to improve the reporting and interpretation of the data.